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Silver Reaches All Time Highs
Benjamin Cowenยท2025-10-17 16:04

Market Analysis and Predictions - Silver has reached all-time highs, currently around $54, and the industry anticipates a potential correction, possibly in Q1 2026 or earlier [1][4][7] - The analysis suggests silver's price movement may mirror gold's pattern after breaking its 2011 high, with a rally followed by consolidation [2][6][8] - The industry notes that silver has extended beyond its prior all-time high by approximately 8%, similar to gold's initial rally beyond its high [4] - A 20-30% drop in commodities, including silver, is expected, potentially coinciding with an equities drop, but commodities are likely to recover more quickly [17] - The analysis indicates a potential pullback in silver within the next few months, which will likely bring it below prior all-time highs, but this is viewed as a higher low before further gains [18][19] Economic Indicators and Comparisons - The S&P divided by gold ratio is approaching a precarious level, potentially signaling a local or macro top for the S&P 500 [12][13] - Gold tends to recover more quickly than the S&P 500 during breakdowns in the S&P/Gold ratio [14][15] - While gold's monthly RSI is high (92), RSI can be unreliable for timing market cycle tops, as demonstrated in 1973 when gold rallied significantly after an initial drop [9][10] Investment Strategy - The next significant opportunity in commodities is anticipated in about a year, with expectations of lower prices forming a macro higher low [11] - The current market is characterized as a commodity bull market, potentially lasting for some time, with commodities likely to outperform equities in the long run [16][18]