US-China trade relations have CEOs on edge, holiday shopping expected to top $1.7 trillion

Holiday Shopping Season Outlook - The International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) expects retail sales to climb roughly 4%, topping $1.7 trillion in the fourth quarter [3][6] - Discount department stores, mass merchants like Amazon and Walmart are expected to lead the way in retail sales [5] - Consumers are price-sensitive and concerned about pricing, leading them to seek deals and be opportunistic in their purchases [6][10] - About a quarter of respondents plan to use AI tools to research pricing, products, and reviews [13] - Consumer concerns and potential geopolitical events could impact the holiday season [14][15] Market Trends and Analysis - All major indices ended the day higher, with financials up just barely [2][18] - Real estate curiously rose 3.3% [18] - Korea, emerging markets, home builders, and retail are performing well, while crypto, IPOs, and regional banks are not [18] - The Dow was up 1.5%, NASDAQ up 2%, and Russell 2000 up 2.4% for the week [19] - The VIX saw a huge rise after the bank scare, remaining elevated [20][21] - Palladium is down 10%, and silver is down 5%, showing a bearish engulfing pattern [23][24] - Bitcoin has broken its trading range and needs to climb above $115,000 next week to avoid a bearish indicator [26][27][28] CEO Confidence and Business Environment - CEO confidence is dipping due to uncertainty in the policy landscape, particularly around tariffs [30] - Markets dislike unknowns, making decision-making harder for businesses [32] - Layoffs are picking up, some tied to softer demand and others to AI investments [33] - Marketing budgets are tightening, with people being more discerning about where their money is going [43]