The Quiet Race to Build Self-Driving Trucks in the US and Europe

Industry Overview & Market Size - The US freight industry is nearly a $1 trillion market, with trucks accounting for nearly 80% of intrastate shipments [3] - The long haul trucking market and the regional/middle mile segment each represent about $300 billion [6] - Goldman Sachs expects the self-driving truck market to increase by over 13,000% in four years, from $130 million in 2026 to $18 billion in 2030 [7] Autonomous Trucking Technology & Deployment - Aurora is running fully driverless 18-wheelers on public freeways between Dallas and Houston [4] - Aurora has observed 14% fuel savings using autonomous driving compared to manual driving [5] - Aurora has driven 3 million miles in autonomy, including 50,000 driverless miles, with a perfect safety record [5] - 24 US states have opened their doors for autonomous freight operations, with Texas leading in regulatory environment [7] - Germany allows testing of autonomous driving up to level 4, but lags behind the US in real-world testing due to stricter regulations [17] Labor Market & Economic Impact - Autonomous trucking could add over 450,000 jobs to the American economy over the next 15 years [31] - The average age of truck drivers in the United States has increased from 35 to 55 in the last 20 years [27] Cost Analysis - Goldman Sachs analysts expect the cost per mile for driverless trucks to fall from $6.15 to $1.89 by 2030 [24] - Human-driven truck costs could increase from $2.61 to $2.80 per mile over the same period [24]