Gold and Silver Post Steepest Drops in Years as Rally Cools

Market Analysis & Gold Performance - Gold price surged significantly, up 66% year-to-date, ranking among the top four performances in the last 100 years, only surpassed by 1979, 1973, and 1974 [1] - The disparity between gold's rise and crude oil's 20% decline, reaching approximately 86%, signals a severe global deflationary force [2] - Gold's behavior, rising when stock market volatility is low, raises concerns about a potential uptick in stock market volatility; gold might be providing a warning signal [3] - A weaker U S dollar has contributed to gold's strength, as most commodities are denominated in U S dollars [3] Factors Influencing Gold Prices - A controversial U S president and ongoing wars are beneficial for gold; Trump's actions against the Fed seem to positively impact the gold market [4] - Central banks are underlying buyers in the cash market, supporting gold prices, but their buying may decrease as prices approach the $4,000 level [11] - The government shutdown and the delay in the Commodity Futures Trading Commission report contribute to a perfect storm for gold, which might be ending [9][10] Potential Correction & Risks - Gold has reached its highest level since 1981 relative to its 60-month moving average, suggesting it may be time to reduce long positions [5] - A pullback to $3,500 is possible, as $4,000 has transitioned from key resistance to support; a 30% correction from current levels would be normal, similar to 2008 [6] - A stock market correction of 5% to 10%, which hasn't occurred in a long time, could push gold prices lower [8] Indicators & Speculation - Open interest in gold futures has remained flat for years, indicating a lack of significant speculation [10] - ETF inflows have increased, but the cash market and central bank buying are the primary drivers of gold's movement [11]