Market Resilience & Economic Outlook - The market has shown resilience despite fears and earnings revisions, experiencing a V-shaped recovery after a 3% drop [1][2] - Tariff concerns are quickly absorbed by the markets and are not expected to derail the current trajectory [2] - Strong corporate earnings contribute to market resilience, even amidst skepticism about CPI numbers due to government shutdowns [3] - The market is engaged in a "juggling act," balancing strong earnings with concerns about economic data [3] - Concerns on the edges of the market are healthy, preventing a straight "rocket ship up" scenario and fostering a two-way conversation [6] Investment Strategy & Portfolio Allocation - A balanced portfolio, including alternative investments, is recommended for clients [4] - Alternative investments are crucial for protection in a down market, offering safe interest, low volatility, and absolute returns [14] - A sample allocation package includes 40-45% equities, 30-40% fixed income, and 25-35% alternative investments [14] - Focus is on market-neutral, uncorrelated asset classes within alternatives, targeting 4-6% volatility and 5-7% coupon [15] Technology & AI - AI is considered a potential global revolution, comparable to infrastructure developments like railroads, and is still in its early stages [5] - Companies are investing heavily in capex to stay ahead in AI, which may temporarily affect earnings but is seen as necessary for growth [11][12] Tech Earnings & Market Dynamics - Tech earnings expectations are relatively high, and the margin of beat may be lower than before [8] - Dispersion within the Mag 7 stocks is healthy, with some stocks up significantly while others are relatively flat year-to-date [8] - A 3% pullback in the market, despite challenges, indicates resilience but also suggests a lack of a significant reset [10] - Strong earnings and ongoing capex spending suggest positive market prospects for the next 6-12 months [12]
Earnings season should help with portfolio rebalancing, says Vios Advisors' MIchael Bapis
CNBC Television·2025-10-21 20:26