Citi's Francesco Martoccia: Here's what to make of falling oil prices

Market Trends & Oil Prices - Oil prices have been weak this year, benefiting American drivers with gasoline prices nearing $2 per gallon in some areas [1] - Citigroup expects oil prices to move around $60 per barrel on a Brent basis [4] - Unexpected US-India trade deal reports could involve a partial curtailment of Russian oil imports from India, impacting oil prices [5] OPEC Strategy & Production - OPEC has been adding barrels to the market but may switch its strategy at any time, potentially pausing or reversing production increases [2][6] - Over the next couple of months, OPEC is expected to continue adding around 140 thousand barrels per day [7] - Saudi Arabia is assumed to freeze production at 103 million barrels per day, and Russia will maintain production at around 101 to 102 million barrels per day [7] - The market is still long next year, though not as long as the IIA expects, suggesting OPEC should cut around 2 million barrels per day in mid-first quarter next year [8] Future Outlook & Investment - A longer-term supportive picture is anticipated, although a rocky path is expected before reaching that point [9] - China could provide some support, along with a reaction from lower shale production and potential USSPR intakes [10] - Lack of investment could lead to a great shortage of oil in a couple of years [9]