Sanctions have a far greater impact on Russian oil flows than tariffs: Energy Aspects' Amrita Sen

Market Impact of Sanctions - US sanctions on Russian oil producers could remove 15 million to 25 million barrels per day from the market [2] - Enforced sanctions could lead to significantly higher oil prices, potentially reaching $80-$90 per barrel [4][5] - Even with workarounds and continued flows to China, Russian oil exports could still decrease by at least 1 million barrels per day, leading to higher prices [8] Sanction Enforcement and Workarounds - The market is skeptical about the enforcement of sanctions, as workarounds are often found [3][5] - Sanctions are considered more impactful than tariffs because banks and insurance companies become cautious, affecting funding and business dealings [10][11][12] - New entities in the Middle East may emerge to trade sanctioned volumes [7] Geopolitical Factors and Market Sentiment - The Trump administration may have imposed sanctions due to low oil prices [9] - The EU is coordinating with the US on sanctions, despite potential impacts on Western energy prices [13][14] - The market is skeptical that the West has the appetite for high energy prices, influencing price expectations [15] Short-Term and Long-Term Price Outlook - Oil prices may grind higher in the short term, with Brent potentially trading at $70 again [15] - Many traders believe the rally is temporary due to an oversupplied market expected in 2026 [16][17] - If sanctions are enforced after the November 21st deadline, a material increase in prices could be seen into 2026, but a sell-off is expected after the near-term increase [17]