What September's 'K-Shaped' Inflation Report Means for the Fed

Inflation Trends - Monthly consumer price inflation was slightly lower than forecast, with headline inflation up 03%/10 and core inflation up 02%/10 [1] - Annual inflation is still rising, with both core and headline inflation up 3% over the past 12 months [1] - Some products experienced slowing inflation, offsetting the impact of tariffs [2] Federal Reserve Policy - Analysts believe the Fed will cut rates again [1] - The Fed's target inflation rate is 2% [2] - The Fed is expected to continue cutting rates [3] Economic Indicators - Housing, food, and car costs were notably restrained [1] - The government's measure of home prices rose at the slowest pace since January 2021 [1] - Furniture, clothing, and personal care products saw price increases due to tariffs [2] Data Collection Disruption - The government may not be able to collect price data for the current month due to the shutdown, potentially impacting the October CPI report and jobs number [4] - The absence of the October CPI report raises uncertainty about the Fed's ability to cut rates in December [4] Economic Outlook - The report suggests a k-shaped economy and a k-shaped CPI report [2][3]