Trade Talks Unlikely to Derail Risk: 3-Minute MLIV

Market & Trade Dynamics - The market has not fully priced in the potential positive outcomes from the Trump-XI meeting, suggesting further market volatility is expected [1] - Escalating trade tensions, such as 100% tariff rates, negatively impact US, China, and global growth, leading to market sell-offs, while de-escalation triggers rallies [2] - The US-China trade relationship is unique due to mutual reliance: the US on China for rare earths, and China on the US for tech, incentivizing a deal [3] - Trade negotiations between the US and Canada are strained, potentially leading to further interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada and weighing on the Canadian dollar (CAD) [12] Inflation & Monetary Policy - The market is currently less concerned about inflation and the pass-through of tariff costs to consumers [4] - In the US, the impact of tariffs on inflation is delayed rather than eliminated due to front-loading and varying inventory cycles, potentially keeping inflation above the Federal Reserve's (Fed) target for an extended period [5][6] - Europe is experiencing disinflationary pressures due to demand shocks and the absence of retaliatory tariffs [6][7] - The European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to maintain a dovish stance into 2026 [7] Central Bank Actions - The market anticipates a rate cut from the Fed at its upcoming meeting, influenced by recent softer inflation data [8] - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) might signal a rate hike in December, although this is not currently priced into the market [10] - The Bank of Canada (BOC) is likely to cut rates despite sticky inflation, driven by concerns over trade-related downside risks to growth; a cut would bring them to the bottom of their neutral range [11][12]