Commercial Real Estate Crisis 2025: How Bad Is It?

Commercial Real Estate Market Overview - US office loan defaults are nearly 12%, apartment loan defaults doubled in the last year, and $1 trillion of commercial real estate needs refinancing by December [1] - Private equity has assembled a $400 billion war chest for distressed commercial real estate [2] - The American commercial real estate market is worth $207 trillion, exceeding two-thirds of the US Treasury market and America's GDP [10] - $15 trillion in US commercial real estate loans needed to be repaid or refinanced by the end of 2025, later data shows it's closer to $1 trillion [28] Sector Performance - Office sector is in critical condition, retail is facing an identity crisis, industrial is exceeding expectations, and multifamily is watching nervously [9] - Office buildings in San Francisco have lost 70% of their value since 2019 [17] - 46% of securitized multifamily loans maturing by the end of 2025 are insolvent, totaling $473 billion in underwater apartment loans [23] - Total commercial real estate distress hit $116 billion by March 2025, the highest in over a decade and up 23% year-over-year [25] Financial Institutions and Lending - Delinquency rate for office loans hit 117% last month, worse than the 107% peak during the 2008 financial crisis [19] - Small banks with under $20 billion in assets hold 561% of all commercial property loans [32] - 25% of the $15 trillion, approximately $35 billion, will be hard to refinance [33] - Deutsche Fund Brief Bank is exiting the US market, writing off a €41 billion portfolio loss [39] Private Equity and Market Strategies - Private equity's war chest has grown to $400 billion, with 64% targeted at North America [41] - Brookfield raised a record $16 billion distressed real estate fund, deploying $18 billion in Q1 2025 [42]