Goldman's Kostin Sticks to 6,800 Year-End S&P 500 Target

Earnings and Growth - US corporate companies' earnings have surpassed expectations, with an 8% year-over-year growth compared to the expected 6% [2][4] - Earnings are expected to continue growing into 2026 [2] - The first half of the year saw earnings up by 12% year-over-year [4] - Positive surprises in earnings have consistently been around 4 percentage points above expectations in the last two years [5] - Baseline earnings growth for the next year is projected at 7%, with potential upside risk [5] Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - The market anticipates four Federal Reserve (FED) cuts, starting this week and continuing in December, then twice next year [2] - FED easing is generally a tailwind for stocks, provided there is no recession, and the forecast anticipates economic growth [3] Capital Expenditure and Market Dynamics - Capital spending growth year-over-year is expected to exceed buybacks, indicating corporate management's optimism [6] - Venture capital and private equity professionals are optimistic about market fundamentals [8] - The IPO market has been robust, with 350 transactions and an average deal increase of nearly 30% on the first day of trading [8][9] - Market participant positioning is relatively muted, suggesting potential purchasing capacity [10]