Ray Dalio: A risky AI market bubble is forming, but may not pop until the Fed tightens

Market Bubble Concerns - A composite bubble indicator suggests a relatively high level of bubble activity in the market [1] - Bubbles are unlikely to burst unless monetary policy tightens, but current trends suggest easing rates are more probable [2] - The divergence in the economy, with weakening elements alongside bubble development, complicates monetary policy [4] - The current situation is reminiscent of market conditions before crashes in 1998-99 and 1927-28 [4] - The industry acknowledges significant risks, even if the exact timing of a potential bubble burst is uncertain [7] Unicorn Valuation and Financing - Unicorns may raise, for example, $100 million but be valued at $1 billion, creating a perception of wealth that isn't fully realized in cash transactions [5] - This inflated valuation can become its own form of "money" within the ecosystem [6] AI and Technology Risks - The rapid obsolescence of GPUs and the evolving landscape of data centers present risks in the AI sector [6]