Monetary Policy & Liquidity - The market anticipates a 25bps (0.25%) rate cut by the FOMC, but this is already factored into prices [1] - The end of Quantitative Tightening (QT) does not equate to the start of Quantitative Easing (QE), implying continued tight monetary conditions [1] - Liquidity is diminishing, and despite calls for new liquidity injections, the FED is unlikely to initiate QE soon, given inflation is 50% above the target, unless a major crisis occurs [1] - The FED has historically only printed money during crises, and a crisis is currently brewing in the REPO market [2] - Repo facilities are strained, overnight funding is collapsing, and liquidity stress is spreading throughout the system, indicating a very low amount of available cash [2] Market Outlook - The author maintains a short position on BTC and Stocks, expecting no sustainable strength [1][2] - The author's short orders for BTC are stacked between 116,700–117,200, primarily in USDT [2] - The expectation is that euphoria will fade, liquidity will vanish, and the system will crack, prompting the Fed to print again [2]
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Doctor Profit 🇨🇭·2025-10-29 10:58