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Sam Altman reveals exact date of intelligence explosion
Matthew Bermanยท2025-10-29 19:01

AI Development Timeline - OpenAI estimates an intern-level AI research assistant by September 2026 and a legitimate AI researcher by March 2028 [1][2][3][23] - The industry anticipates that automated AI research will lead to an intelligence explosion, rapidly advancing towards super intelligence [4][5] AI Task Capabilities - AI is currently capable of autonomously completing tasks for durations of seconds, minutes, and hours, with the industry aiming for days, weeks, months, and years [7] - The industry emphasizes that efficiency in token usage and compute during task duration is as important as the duration itself [8][9] AI Model Trustworthiness - OpenAI is exploring methods to ensure AI models are aligned with human incentives by allowing models to think freely without intervention, to gain insights into their thought processes [15][17][18][20][21] - OpenAI emphasizes the importance of controlled privacy for AI models to retain the ability to understand their inner processes [19][20] Infrastructure and Investment - OpenAI's infrastructure plan includes building a factory to produce AI factories, with a potential output of a gigawatt per week [25] - OpenAI's current infrastructure projects are valued at $1.4 trillion [24] Organizational Structure - OpenAI's structure consists of the OpenAI Foundation (nonprofit) governing the OpenAI group (public benefit corporation), with the nonprofit owning 26% of the PBC equity [28][29] - The OpenAI Foundation has a $25 billion commitment to health/curing diseases and AI resilience [29] Concerns and Future Development - OpenAI acknowledges concerns about the addictive potential of AI products like Sora and chatbots [30][31][32][33] - OpenAI plans to continue supporting GPT-40 while developing better models [35][36] - OpenAI expects significant advancements in model capability within six months [40]