How the Economic Machine Works Part 5
Principles by Ray Dalio·2025-10-31 13:01

Economic Impact of Deleveraging - Lower incomes and increased unemployment reduce government tax revenue while simultaneously increasing the need for government spending on unemployment benefits [1] - Governments often implement stimulus plans and increase spending, leading to budget deficits as they spend more than they earn in taxes [2] - Governments may raise taxes on the wealthy to redistribute wealth, potentially causing resentment between different socioeconomic groups [3] - Continued economic depression can lead to social disorder and political instability, both within and between countries [4] Monetary Policy Response - Central banks, having lowered interest rates to near zero, may resort to printing money to stimulate the economy [5] - Central banks print money to buy financial assets and government bonds, as the Federal Reserve printed over $2 trillion during the 2008 crisis [6] - This action increases asset prices, benefiting those who own financial assets, but the central bank can only buy financial assets [7] - Central banks cooperate with the central government, which can buy goods and services, by buying government bonds, effectively lending money to fund stimulus programs [8] Risks and Policy Considerations - Policymakers must balance deflationary and inflationary measures to manage debt burdens and maintain stability during deleveraging [9]