Fiserv's Lone Bear: 26-Year-Old Analyst Explains His Call Before Huge Selloff

Analyst Ratings & Company Performance - Rothschild analyst Dominic Ball maintains a sell rating on Fire Serv, which has declined by 70% since the rating was issued [1][2] - Only 5% of analysts on the Bloomberg terminal issue sell ratings [3] - Global Payments is also rated as sell by only 6% of analysts covering it [9] - Fire Serv stock is down 40% over the past five years, while Global Payments is down 50% over the same period [16] Company Strategy & Challenges - Fire Serv's Clover product (a point of sale system) is facing issues, indicating a systemic problem [2] - Management at Fire Serv has focused too aggressively on Clover, potentially underinvesting in other areas [7] - Companies that have grown through M&A face challenges in consolidating and focusing R&D on new technologies [8][10][11] - Payments industry faces rapid technological changes, including the emergence of gig commerce and stablecoins [8] Competitive Landscape & Opportunities - Toast is highlighted as a strong competitor with a focused approach and significant market share gains in the restaurant vertical [9][14] - Toast is considered materially underrated, with the potential for significant growth and high margins [15] - Analyst has a target price of $60 for Toast, which IPO'd when interest rates were near 0% [17] - Toast has scaled to 35% EBIT margins within 18 months while adding more locations [18]