Rising tide is lifting all hyperscaler boats right now, says Madrona's Matt McIlwain

AI Capex and Hyperscaler Dynamics - Hyperscalers are experiencing a rising tide, with Meta showing potential at a better rate [3] - All four major tech companies (Meta, Amazon, Google, Microsoft) possess the capital to build data centers and train AI models [4] - These companies are building "reasoning machines" by combining models, context, and data [5] - The industry is still determining which companies are building superior AI chips for operational advantages [6] - The industry is shifting focus from topline growth to operational efficiency and cost [7] Company-Specific AI Strategies - Google has shown strong progress with its Gemini models [8] - Microsoft's partnership realignment with OpenAI positions it well for the next 5+ years [9] - Amazon's relationship with Anthropic and its Bedrock offering provide price, convenience, and selection for building reasoning machines [10] Nvidia's Dominance and Market Demand - Overwhelming demand for AI and data centers benefits Nvidia, despite companies developing their own chips [11] - The five companies that announced earnings this week are projected to spend over $500 billion on capex next year [11] - Nvidia's strength lies not only in GPUs but also in CUDA and its investments in private companies [12] - Nvidia and Intel are partnering to facilitate growth, as CPUs are needed alongside GPUs for reasoning machines [12]