Why ALT Season Has Not Happened

Market Analysis & Altcoin Performance - Altcoins have been underperforming against Bitcoin since 2021 [2] - Altcoin/Bitcoin pairs recently hit a new low of 029% [3] - Historically, significant alt seasons have only occurred after altcoin/Bitcoin pairs reach 025% [3] - The current altcoin/Bitcoin pairs are at 036% [4] - The analysis suggests altcoin/Bitcoin pairs are likely to reach 025% [26][27] - An altcoin market cap is expected to be approximately 25% of Bitcoin's market cap [28] Social Interest & Market Cycles - Low social interest in crypto, similar to the period from January 2018 to the end of 2019, contributes to the underperformance of altcoins [7] - The current market cycle is being compared to the 2019 rally, where Bitcoin outperformed altcoins during quantitative tightening [11][12][14] - The entire 2019 rally for Bitcoin occurred during quantitative tightening, similar to the current cycle [14] - Bitcoin dominance is breaking through its bull market support band, indicating a likely continued rally [30] Monetary Policy Impact - The Federal Reserve is expected to end quantitative tightening in December [9] - Historically, altcoin/Bitcoin pairs bottomed when quantitative tightening ended, but this did not immediately trigger an alt season [9] - The end of quantitative tightening might lead to a bounce in altcoin/Bitcoin pairs [17] - The analysis suggests that high interest rates and quantitative tightening have contributed to Bitcoin's outperformance and the absence of an alt season [25] Bitcoin Performance & Dominance - Bitcoin is taking liquidity from the altcoin market to maintain its position above $100000, similar to how it took liquidity to stay above $10000 in 2019 [34] - Bitcoin dominance is expected to continue to rise, at least until early December [26] - A weekly close below the 50-week moving average, currently around $103000, could indicate the end of the cycle [32][33]