Election Day 2025: PIMCO's Libby Cantrill on what to watch for

Election Analysis & Market Implications - PIMCO is monitoring off-year elections to test the durability of trends observed in 2024, particularly regarding President Trump's influence and Republican inroads with minorities and younger men [2][3] - These elections could provide clues about the durability of trends seen in 2024 and the effectiveness of the shutdown strategy for Democrats [4][5] - A decisive win by one party in New Jersey, Virginia, and New York City could correlate with the 2026 midterm elections [8] - The Supreme Court's review of the Voting Rights Act is a significant issue, potentially leading to secular trends benefiting Republicans and impacting the House in 2026 and beyond [18][19] Candidate Performance & Messaging - The performance of candidates like Mikey Cheryl in New Jersey is being closely watched, with her campaign potentially being less impactful than expected [6] - Democrats can learn from candidates like Mandani, who, like Trump, effectively communicates on economic issues and understands voter concerns about affordability [11][12] - Mandani's focus on "kitchen table issues" like gas and groceries resonates with voters, similar to Trump's approach in 2024 [12] Specific Races & Referendums - The New Jersey race is significant because Harris won it by only 6 percentage points, compared to Biden's nearly 16 percentage points, potentially indicating shifting trends [7] - Proposition 50 in California is important due to its impact on redistricting and potential benefits for Gavin Newsom's presidential aspirations and Democrats' efforts to counter Republican redistricting [17] - Prediction markets suggest a high probability (e g 84% or 90% or 98%) of certain candidates winning, but surprises are still possible [13][19]