X @Mayne

Market Cycle Analysis - The analysis suggests a belief in a 4-year cycle, anticipating a market peak in Q4 2025 or early Q1 2026 [1] - The analysis indicates that Bitcoin (BTC) hasn't experienced its "blow off top" compared to tech stocks, gold, and some crypto companies, suggesting a potential future parabolic rally [2] - The analysis points to an upcoming weekly cycle low for BTC, potentially leading to a push towards new All-Time Highs (ATHs) [3] Potential Market Drivers - The analysis speculates on potential market-pumping strategies by Trump leading into 2026, drawing parallels with the 2019 cycle and government reopening [3] Risk Assessment - The analysis acknowledges the possibility that the 4-year cycle may no longer be valid, but indicates a willingness to remain bullish if the market continues to rise [4] - The analysis anticipates a mostly bearish 2026 if the 4-year cycle holds, expecting significantly lower BTC prices but not necessarily an 80%+ drawdown [5] - The analysis considers a bearish scenario where the current rally fails to create a new ATH, suggesting a potential distribution phase with the top already in [5]