Bitcoin Drops Below $100,000 for First Time Since June

Market Trends & Risks - The crypto market's appreciation is now dependent on the Trump administration, despite initially being seen as a counter to authorities [1] - A significant risk is that major insiders are exiting the crypto market [2] - The crypto market is highly correlated to the stock market, behaving almost as the same trade due to ETF investments from traditional Nasdaq and S&P 500 investors [3] - Crypto is trading more like a risky asset in tandem with equities rather than a safe haven like treasuries [4] - Executive hubris and excessive bullishness in the crypto market are declining towards the end of the year [6] - Divergent weakness is observed in cryptos, with the Bloomberg Galaxy crypto index down almost 10% year-to-date despite the S&P 500 being up almost 17% [8] Technical Analysis & Correlation - Technical analysis is applicable to crypto, especially since many cryptocurrencies track nothing [13][14] - Cryptocurrencies are correlated; when Bitcoin drops 10%, other cryptocurrencies typically drop 20% to 30% [10] - The Bitcoin chart looks almost exactly opposite to the gold chart from a few months ago, raising concerns [17] Specific Cryptocurrencies & Market Sentiment - Dogecoin, with a $25 billion market cap, is considered a joke and attracts nothing, reminiscent of speculative excesses in past bull markets [11][12] - A potential crypto liquidation event could be triggered if Bitcoin breaks below $100,000, leading to a cascade effect [15] - MicroStrategy, a leading indicator of Bitcoin, is below its 200-day moving average and rolled over in August [18]