Hackett: The earnings trajectory is very strong and broadening beyond AI names

Market Sentiment & Tariffs - The market initially reacted positively to a stronger-than-expected ADP report and skepticism surrounding the legality of tariffs, suggesting a hope for their repeal [1] - Investors exhibit a "buy the dip" mentality, potentially overemphasizing positive news regarding tariffs [3][4] - The market generally dislikes uncertainty, and the potential for tariff refunds outweighs the perceived risks [2][3] Bond Market & Treasury - The 10-year Treasury yield moved up by approximately 5-6 basis points due to the jobs report and the possibility of tariff repeal leading to increased bond issuances [5] - Potential tariff refunds for corporations, if mandated by the Supreme Court, would necessitate increased Treasury issuances [6] Earnings Season & Outlook - Earnings trajectory is strong, with convergence between AI-focused companies and other market sectors [10] - Resilient consumers and better-than-expected margins contribute to strong earnings, mitigating worst-case scenario concerns [11] - Dollar strengthening over the past three months has contributed to outsized earnings beats [9] Market Dynamics & Bubble Concerns - Smaller, less prominent companies are experiencing rallies following earnings beats, while previously strong performers face pullbacks [12] - Despite concerns from some analysts, the market may be moving past bubble fears, particularly in the AI space, due to fundamental differences compared to past bubbles [14][15] - There's a degree of froth and expectations have caught up with reality in the AI space, sideways movement is healthy [15]