Alternative jobless claims data could suggest further weakening ahead

Labor Market Trends - Initial jobless claims rose by 10,000 to 229,000, remaining within the recent range [1] - Continuing claims are edging higher, potentially indicating future weakening in the labor market [2] - Continuing claims by federal workers surged, topping 23,000, the highest since 2019, possibly due to the shutdown and laid-off workers applying for benefits [3] - Alternative jobs reports suggest a cooling labor market, but without runaway signals in either direction [3] Employment Data - ADP preliminary data indicated an average of 14,000 weekly job gains [4] - The national report showed an increase from -29,000 to 42,000 [4] - The Chicago Fed's estimate of the unemployment rate remained relatively unchanged around 43% [4] - Challenger job cuts report indicated a gain of 153,000 [4] Indicators of Weakness - The Indeed jobs posting, while above the standard of 100, has been continuously decreasing [5] - ISM manufacturing and service employment indices both ticked up but remain below 50, subjectively categorized as weakness [5] Data Analysis & Future Outlook - The Fed is likely analyzing this data, potentially possessing more comprehensive information [6] - Good alternative data on prices is currently lacking, with plans to release some next week [6]