Fed Divided; Wall Street Shrugs Off Credit Concerns | Real Yield 11/7/2025

Federal Reserve & Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve is divided on the current state of the economy, leading to uncertainty about future policy decisions [1][2][6] - Market participants anticipate the Federal Reserve to cut rates, with expectations of a terminal rate slightly below 3% [3][20] - Some argue that current monetary policy is not restrictive and further rate cuts could contribute to inflation, especially hurting the lower-income portion of the K-shaped economy [11][12] - BlackRock expects CPI tariffs to be closer to 25% by the end of 2026, potentially allowing monetary policy to be less restrictive [15] Economic Indicators & Consumer Sentiment - U S consumer sentiment hit a three-year low, matching levels from June 2022, due to high prices and the government shutdown [1][5] - Challenger job cut data shows a significant spike in job losses in October, particularly in the tech and warehousing sectors, with the biggest number in the last seven months [4][9] - Alternative data sources, such as ADP for jobs and jobless claims, are being used to model the economy in the absence of official government data [18] Bond Market & Credit - Global bond sales have hit a record, with nearly $6 trillion in corporate and sovereign debt sold in 2025, driven by strong demand [1][30] - Alphabet raised $25 billion between Europe and the U S , with $175 billion in the U S market, contributing to a busy November for Wall Street [30] - Corporate bond spreads are considered complacent, and some suggest that corporate credit is not the best place to be in fixed income, recommending agency mortgage-backed securities, munis, or treasuries instead [26][27][28] - High-yield bond defaults are at a normal level of 1% to 2%, but there is a need for discipline in lending standards as supply outstrips demand [32][33]