Bitcoin Relative Strength Index

Market Analysis and RSI Indicator - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is not the best indicator to use by itself because assets can stay overbought or oversold for extended periods [2] - Using the weekly RSI alone to determine market tops can be misleading, as Bitcoin dominance increased from 54% to 66% even after the RSI topped in October 2023 [4][5] - The high for the weekly RSI in the current cycle occurred in March 2024 at 88, but Bitcoin's price continued to rally afterward [6] - The weekly RSI for Bitcoin is currently showing lower highs, suggesting potential weakness in the midterm year [9] - Bitcoin's weekly RSI is finding support around 44, similar to the 53-54 level in the 2016-2017 cycle; a breakdown below this level could signal the end of the cycle [12][14] Future Market Outlook - The market is at critical levels across weekly, two-week, and monthly RSIs, requiring close observation of the reaction at these levels [30] - A breakdown of the weekly RSI into the high 30s would likely indicate the end of the cycle [25] - If Bitcoin fails to hold support at the 50-week moving average and the weekly RSI of 44, it could set up a bear market year [49] - If a euphoria phase does not occur, the bear market might be less severe, potentially leading to a 50% drawdown and a return to the 200-week moving average [35] - A durable rally by altcoins against Bitcoin requires a parabolic Bitcoin rally that takes the monthly RSI back to highs seen in prior cycles; otherwise, calls for an alt season are unsubstantiated [44][45]