ADP tracker now shows economy may have lost jobs in October

Employment Data Analysis - ADP preliminary report indicates a decrease of 11,000 in the 4-week moving average of private sector job creation [1] - This equates to a month-on-month decrease of approximately 44,000 to 45,000 jobs [2] - The index of average weekly job growth over the four-week period ending October 25th is down by 11,000, contrasting with the previous month's increase of 42,000, suggesting a weakening trend in October [3] - The data is consistent with a "low fire, low hire" economy [6] Small Business Sentiment - The NFIB small business optimism index fell by 0.6% to 98.2%, the lowest since April, but still above the long-term average [4] - Plans to increase hiring among small businesses decreased by 1 percentage point to 15% [4] - "Trouble with labor quality" increased by 9 percentage points to 27%, the highest since the pandemic [5] - Unfilled job openings remained unchanged, at the lowest level since the pandemic [5] Government Data and Alternative Data - The September government jobs and CPI reports are expected to be released several days after the government shutdown ends [8][9] - October data may be incomplete or unavailable due to the shutdown [9] - Alternative data may provide a more contemporary and potentially better understanding of the economy than government data, especially in light of potential inaccuracies caused by the shutdown [14][15][19]