Crypto Cycle EXTENDED!? ISM And Liquidity EXPLAINED!!

Market Cycle Analysis - The crypto market has historically followed the business cycle, potentially extending into 2026, suggesting a prolonged bull market [2] - Macro analysts suggest the crypto market cycle is no longer solely based on Bitcoin halving but correlates with the economic cycle, particularly the ISM Manufacturing Index [6][7] - The ISM, an indicator of economic activity, has historically correlated with Bitcoin's cycle tops and bottoms, but this pattern has recently broken [9][10] - An extended debt refinancing cycle, with average debt maturity increasing to approximately 54 years due to the pandemic, may be extending the liquidity and crypto cycles [12] Liquidity and Economic Indicators - Some analysts argue that economic indicators like the ISM are misleading and have unclear correlation with global liquidity [16] - Global liquidity, measured by Global M2, has risen, but Bitcoin's price has flatlined, weakening the correlation between the two [18] - Central bank policies and debt refinancing challenges could lead to a contraction in global liquidity, potentially impacting the crypto market [20][21] - Economic data may be deceptive due to factors like inflation and unemployment rates, making the economy appear stronger than it is [26][27] Future Outlook and Investment Strategy - The crypto market is expected to continue a gradual upward trend, mirroring the overall economy [40] - Assuming a recession is avoided, Q4 2025 is projected to be bullish, with Bitcoin potentially reaching its cycle top, followed by Ethereum and altcoins approximately one month later [47][48] - The current crypto market cycle differs from previous cycles due to less loose monetary policy, more mature regulatory frameworks, and different patterns of retail participation [44][45] - AI-related ventures have significantly contributed to economic growth, particularly in the US, impacting sectors like chip manufacturing and infrastructure [36][37]