Hassett: Some economic surveys weren't completed during shutdown, so we won't know what happened

Economic Impact of Government Shutdown - Government shutdown could reduce economic growth by 1% to 15% this quarter [2] - Some economic data may be permanently lost due to incomplete surveys during the shutdown [4] - The economy is expected to return to a 3% to 4% growth pace by the first quarter of next year [3] Labor Market Dynamics - Alternative data sources indicate a potential spike in layoffs [5] - Labor market indicators suggest a positive trend, but not as strong as the beginning of the Trump administration [6] - Employers are increasingly concerned about the quality of available labor, with a significant 9 percentage point increase in those citing it as their top problem [7] AI and Productivity - AI is significantly boosting worker productivity and firm profitability [8][11] - AI adoption is accelerating, leading to a productivity boom, with current productivity growth around 3% [12] - AI is helping businesses operate more efficiently, leading to record earnings surprises [10][11] Economic Growth and Investment - Year-over-year consumption growth is approximately 6% nominally [16] - There is a substantial capital spending boom, not limited to the AI sector [17] - Tax cuts are expected to increase labor supply and investment [17]