The Growth of Prediction Markets

Regulatory Landscape & Compliance - CFTC regulates prediction markets, including event contracts on elections, sports, and more [1][11] - Prediction markets are designated contract markets and registered with the CFTC, implying obligations to prevent manipulation and abusive trading [11][17][18] - Failure to comply with CFTC obligations results in liability for the organization, not just individual participants [18] - Common compliance solutions include training and awareness programs, especially for those involved in events covered by prediction markets [9][10] Market Growth & Trends - Prediction markets have experienced rapid growth, expanding from elections (e.g, KALSI, Polly Market) to sports and other areas [2][3] - Prediction markets are becoming a permanent asset class, influencing how people follow events like elections [19][20] Risks & Challenges - Insider trading is a significant risk in prediction markets, similar to equity, crypto, and sports betting markets [8][9] - There are risks associated with individuals betting large sums (e.g, liquidating 401Ks) on prediction market outcomes [13][14] - Recent cases involving NBA players and major league pitchers highlight the risks of inappropriate gambling and performance manipulation [5][6] Risk Mitigation & Deterrence - Strong policies and procedures, along with enforcement cases, are crucial for deterring misconduct in prediction markets [15][16] - Enforcement actions raise awareness about the risks of participating in these markets [15] - Transparency in prediction markets allows for quick detection of anomalous activity [7][8]