Everything will rally into yearend, says Wells Fargo's Ohsung Kwon

Market Outlook - The market is expected to broaden out, with a target of 7100 by year-end [1] - Seasonality is a key factor, especially for laggers, with November, December, and January being the most positive months [1] - A contrarian sentiment indicator triggered a buy signal, historically leading to an S&P 500 rally of approximately 7.5% over the next 3 months with a 90% positive rate [5] Reflationary Events - Potential AIPA Terrace refund is anticipated, with a ruling expected in December or January, potentially triggering a reflation trade [2] - Tax returns are projected to be larger this year, averaging $800 per person more than last year, contributing to another reflation event [3] AI and Hyperscalers - The AI capex cycle is considered to be in its early stages [6] - Concerns are emerging regarding hyperscalers, as their capex spending may be mandatory for competitiveness, leading to declining free cash flow margins and a decrease in free cash flow as a percentage of earnings to 50% from a previous 100% [7] - AI semis, hardware, and power companies are expected to benefit from the AI capex cycle [8] - Some companies may face scrutiny if they are perceived to be on a continuous spending treadmill without reaping the benefits of scale [10]