How Are Americans Feeling in Trump's Economy?

Labor Market & Inflation - The ADP data may not strongly correlate with the official government jobs report [1] - Recent data indicates a pullback in the labor market combined with accelerating inflation, which has risen from 23% to 3% [2] - The government shutdown is complicating the Fed's ability to project the labor market and inflation [3] Federal Reserve (The Fed) Policy - Chair Powell tempered expectations of a rate cut in December, emphasizing data dependency [4] - There is conflict within the FOMC regarding future policy decisions [5] - The decision regarding a rate cut in December is expected to be very close [5] Fiscal Policy & Housing Market - The odds of $2,000 tariff rebate checks are considered to be under 1% [7] - Tariff revenue was initially intended to offset $1 trillion of the $4 trillion cost of tax cuts [8] - The Supreme Court appears skeptical of Trump's tariffs, potentially leading to their reversal and refunds to companies [8][9] - A 50-year mortgage saves approximately $200 per month compared to a 30-year mortgage for a $400,000 house with a 6% interest rate, but results in paying $320,000 more over the loan's duration [11][12] - The speaker suggests the administration should focus on proven housing affordability solutions like increasing housing supply and zoning reform [12] - The current tariff policy is significantly increasing the cost of constructing new homes [14]