The Most Hated Bull Market In History Is Far From Over

Market Trends & Bull Market Drivers - The bull market is driven by higher corporate profits and higher profit margins [3][6] - S&P 500 third quarter earnings are expected to be up approximately 8%, but are currently tracking over 13% year-over-year [4] - Over 80% of companies have exceeded expectations [5] - Profit margins are currently at new cycle highs [5] - A global bull market is underway, with European financials reaching all-time highs [17] Investor Sentiment & Market Indicators - Despite the bull market, the Fear and Greed index indicates that investors are fearful [18] - The American Association of Individual Investors sentiment poll has shown more bears than bulls this year, a rare occurrence historically associated with down years [20] - The S&P 500 has traded within 3% of its all-time high for five consecutive months [31] - Historically, when the S&P 500 is up 10% year-to-date going into November, the last two months of the year tend to be positive [35][37] - S&P 500 companies with more than 50% of their revenue from overseas are experiencing better earnings, with earnings up 14% compared to the overall S&P 500 earnings increase of 131% [41][42] Fed Policy & Economic Factors - The market anticipates the Fed will likely cut rates in December [52] - Historically, when the Fed cuts rates within 3% of an all-time high, the S&P 500 is higher a year later 21 out of 21 times, with an average increase of 14% [53]