Venezuela has a long road back to oil production of a million barrels a day, says RBC's Helima Croft

Venezuela Oil Sector & US Involvement - US military buildup off the coast of Venezuela raises questions about potential regime change or negotiation for Maduro's exit [1][2] - Chevron is the biggest American operator in Venezuela, highlighting US interest in the country's oil reserves [4] - Potential scenarios include a negotiated exit for Maduro, a Noriega-style extraction, or a Seal Team Six operation [2] Venezuelan Oil Production & Recovery - Venezuela's oil production has declined significantly from its peak of 4 million barrels a day to around 500,000 barrels a day [1][5] - Rebuilding Venezuela's oil infrastructure after Maduro's removal is seen as a way to reduce reliance on Iranian and Russian oil [5][6] - Degradation of PDVSA, infrastructure issues, and massive debt pose significant challenges to a quick recovery of Venezuela's oil sector [6][7] - Sanctions relief might yield a couple hundred thousand barrels, but a return to million-barrel-a-day gains is a long-term prospect [9] Global Oil Market & Investment - Oil prices are up slightly but still below $60, influencing the performance of oil and gas stocks [10] - Lack of investment in the oil sector suggests a potential bottoming out of oil prices in the longer term [11] - Sanctions on key Russian oil exporters, Rosneft and Lukoil, are scheduled to take effect on November 21st [12] - Spare capacity in the oil market is a key factor to watch, especially with potential US military operations in Venezuela [12]