Apollo's Torsten Slok: Majority of Fed is feels that we're not quite done fighting inflation

Market Trends & Economic Outlook - The S&P 500 experienced a recovery from an earlier dip, currently down about 033% [1] - The Nasdaq is also recovering, trading near the flatline, led by Micron, Microsoft, and Nvidia [1] - The consensus expects inflation to remain around 3% for the next 18 months [3][4] - A rebound in the economy is expected next year, with a bill potentially adding almost a full percentage point to GDP growth due to accelerated depreciation [17] Federal Reserve & Monetary Policy - The debate around the Federal Reserve's actions is causing anxiety, particularly in the tech sector [2] - The majority of FMC members are communicating that they are not done fighting inflation, making interest rate cuts in December unlikely [2][3][4] - Upside pressure on inflation is expected due to the dollar's decline and potential pass-through from tariffs [5] - The speaker anticipates the Fed to hold in December due to concerns about upside risks to inflation, which is already at 3% [18] Labor Market Analysis - The true health of the labor market is complex to assess due to data challenges and the timing of the employment report [5][6][7] - Companies predict 2026 will be the worst college grad job market in 5 years [9] - Unemployment rate data for college graduates aged 22-27 shows a divergence, with the rate decreasing for women and increasing for men [9] - The narrative that AI is causing widespread job losses is questioned, as jobless claims are not increasing [10] International Trade & AI Impact - China has been able to adjust its exports, doubling sales to other Asian countries to offset declines to the US [11][12] - The AI story's burden is now on seeing more earnings growth, particularly in the S&P 493, to benefit from AI [15][16] - Service sector companies' input costs have been rising significantly, potentially leading to upside pressure on service inflation next year [20]