Preparing For A Data Deluge, Credit Turns Cautious Amid Volatility

Market Volatility and Economic Uncertainty - Federal Reserve commentary is causing market volatility, casting doubt on potential December rate cuts [1] - The government shutdown has created a data vacuum, leading to uncertainty about the economy's performance and impacting the odds of a rate cut, which fell below 5% from near certainty a month prior [2][3] - The market anticipates a cluster of volatility due to the compressed timing of data releases [5] - There are concerns about the accuracy and consistency of delayed data, making the economic outlook cloudy for several months [6] Federal Reserve Policy and Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve is signaling caution in the data desert, emphasizing the need to tread carefully with limited room to ease policy without becoming overly accommodative [4] - The market is pricing in a 50% probability of a December rate cut, but some believe the Fed is in no rush to cut rates [8][9] - The outlook for 2025 indicates a real GDP growth of about 2%, with expectations of equal or slightly higher growth the following year [11] - Companies are generally still frozen, and the economy is K-shaped, but tax refunds could invigorate consumers [12][13] Credit Market and Investment Grade Bonds - A rare wholesale pull in high-grade bonds indicates unsteady credit markets [1] - The market saw the first market RADEAL, indicating a crack in high yield [18] - Applied Digital selling at 97 cents on the dollar with a yield of around 10% struggled to generate demand, signaling caution among credit investors [19] - No companies are considering new investment-grade bonds today, and wobbliness in the market could impact issuance [23] - Supply has been well absorbed, but spreads have pulled back slightly from all-time lows of 72 to about 80 [25][26]