X @PlanB

Market Analysis & Outlook - The analysis suggests the recent Bitcoin dip to $95,800 from a high of $126,000 is a temporary correction within a bull market, not the start of a bear market [1] - On-chain data indicates a realized cap of over $850 billion, more than double the November 2022 low, signaling accumulation rather than capitulation [1] - Historical data shows that a 50-day MA crossing below the 200-day MA has often marked local bottoms in bull runs, with subsequent rebounds of 45-100% [2] - Polymarket bets are pricing in a year-end Bitcoin price of $122,000-$138,000, factoring in tariffs and Federal Reserve pauses [4] - Multiple sources are eyeing $180,000-$250,000 by the end of the year or Q1 2026, viewing the current dip as a shakeout before further extension [6] Institutional & Market Flows - Spot ETF inflows have reached a record $150 billion in assets under management (AUM) by mid-year, with BlackRock's IBIT leading at $84 billion [3] - Trading volume is at $47.5 billion daily, up 20% week-over-week, with stablecoin dominance increasing as a hedge, indicating a bull market correction [3] - Corporate treasuries, such as MicroStrategy, continue to accumulate Bitcoin, indicating structural demand decoupled from retail FOMO cycles [3] Risk Assessment & Mitigation - A weekly close below $96,000 could lead to a deeper flush to $70,000-$77,000, which is still considered bull territory at 30% off the all-time high [4] - Even skeptics anticipate a floor of $70,000 if their predictions are incorrect, rather than a significant drop below $20,000 [5]