Bitcoin and Main Street

Market Analysis - Bitcoin's major peaks have historically corresponded with peaks in the ISM (Institute for Supply Management) [6] - The current cycle feels different due to Main Street's economic struggles, leading to a lack of retail investor involvement and euphoria [6] - Social interest in Bitcoin is at levels similar to 2019 because Main Street is hurting [17] Economic Factors - The ISM Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) is a key indicator; above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 indicates contraction [5] - The Fed funds rate, currently at 4%, may be higher than the neutral rate, potentially impacting economic conditions [7] - A 50 basis points cut by the Federal Reserve could potentially bring the rate below the neutral rate, but this is not expected [8] Monetary Policy and Future Outlook - The market may experience waning interest in early 2026 until interest rates decrease and monetary policy shifts [13] - Lower rates are needed to alleviate Main Street's concerns about the labor market and inflation [17] - Over time, politicians tend to resort to printing more money to solve economic issues [18] - Cycles like the current one emphasize the importance of sound investment principles [18][19]