Fed minutes show divide over October rate cut and cast doubt about December

Monetary Policy Debate - The market initially anticipated a more dovish stance, but the October meeting minutes revealed a potentially more hawkish sentiment from the Federal Reserve [1] - A significant debate occurred regarding the October rate cut and potential December cuts, indicating internal disagreement within the Federal Reserve [1][5] - Many participants suggested maintaining the funds rate unchanged for the remainder of the year, while only a few supported further rate cuts [1] Inflation and Employment Concerns - Most participants were concerned that rate cuts could exacerbate the risk of entrenched higher inflation [2] - There was general agreement that upside risks to inflation were elevated, and downside risks to employment were also elevated [2] - Some favored lowering the target due to downside risks to employment and little change or diminishing inflation [3] Economic Assessment - Some participants believed that progress toward the 2% inflation target had stalled, or that inflation had actually increased, leading to a lack of confidence in achieving the target [4] - The Federal Reserve debated the restrictiveness of the current policy relative to the neutral rate, with some arguing it remained restrictive even after a 0.25% point cut [4] - Others viewed the economy as resilient, with supportive financial market conditions and no clear indication that the Federal Reserve's policy was restrictive [5]