Steve Kornacki on the next election that will provide midterm clues

Election Overview - A special election in Tennessee's 7th congressional district is coming up in less than two weeks, offering insights into voter sentiment ahead of the 2026 midterms [1][3] - The district is described as solidly Republican, but recent election trends suggest potential competitiveness [1][4] - Former Vice President Kamala Harris made an appearance in support of the Democratic candidate [2] Recent Election Trends - Democrats overperformed in recent elections in New Jersey and Virginia compared to the 2024 election results [5] - In New Jersey, the Democratic margin increased from Trump losing by 6 points to a 14-point win [5] - In Virginia, the Democratic margin increased from Harris winning by just under 6 points to a 15-point win [5] - In four special House elections this year, Democrats have overperformed relative to 2024 [6] - In Florida's first district, the Republican win decreased from 37 points to 15 points [6] - In Florida's sixth district, the Republican win decreased from 30 points to 14 points [6] Tennessee 7th District Analysis - Trump won Tennessee's 7th district by 22 points in the last election and by 15 points in 2020 [7] - If the Democratic candidate can narrow the margin to single digits, it would signal momentum for the party heading into the midterms [8][10] - Lower voter turnout and increased Democratic voter motivation could make the race more competitive [8] Republican Strategy - Republicans plan to portray the Democratic candidate as a progressive, labeling her the "AOC of Tennessee," hoping to use this narrative nationally in 2026 [9] - A significant Republican win without a drop-off in support would validate the effectiveness of these attacks for future elections [9]