Traders Cling to Fed Cut Bets, Optimism on Credit | Real Yield 11/21/2025
Bloomberg Television·2025-11-21 20:05

Federal Reserve Policy & Economic Outlook - The debate heats up as doves sound off on potential rate cuts, with policymakers awaiting the October CPR (Consumer Price Report) and jobs report [1] - Market pricing for a December Fed rate cut initially fell to 30%, then spiked to almost 66%, settling at 63%, indicating high volatility and uncertainty [4][11] - There's a stark division among Fed officials regarding the need for further easing versus holding rates steady to assess the impact of current policy [7][10][15] - The unemployment rate is a key data point that could settle the debate on rate cuts, but the Fed will not have it when they vote [3] - The market is pricing in potential rate cuts, but the timing and extent of these cuts remain uncertain due to mixed economic signals and geopolitical shocks [11][12][13] Bond Market & Investment Strategies - The two-year Treasury yield is at its lowest level since October 28, reflecting market expectations of potential rate cuts [4] - High-quality bonds are seen as a great value opportunity and a hedge against equity risk, with manageable inflation upside risk [21] - The state of the labor market is front and center for bond investors, with the unemployment rate influencing duration and interest rate risk [21] - Investors are keying off the labor market as a catalyst for the bond market, with the unemployment rate being a key indicator [19][21] Credit Market Dynamics - Hyperscalers have raised a combined $108 billion in debt this year, three times the average over the previous nine years, signaling a significant increase in debt issuance [29] - Oracle's credit default swaps have become a barometer for AI risk, with price and volume jumping in recent weeks, potentially indicating defensive positioning or bets against the AI boom [32] - While overall credit stats are improving, there are signs of operational deterioration in some high-yield companies, potentially leading to higher default activity [27][37][38][39]