X @Raoul Pal

Macroeconomic Analysis - The "Magic Formula" indicates GDP growth is increasingly reliant on debt due to declining population and productivity growth [3] - Private sector debt remains around 120% of GDP, with the public sector at a similar level [3] - Economic growth is significantly consumed by servicing private-sector debts, rendering it unproductive [3] - Government debt growth is offsetting demographic decline [5] - Debt growth exceeding GDP is being monetized [6] - Liquidity is the primary driver in the current economic environment [8] Demographic Trends - Birth rates have been declining since the late 1950s, impacting the labor force participation rate [4] - The labor force participation rate is expected to continue declining due to structural demographic issues [4] - Aging populations and automation contribute to deflationary pressures [5] Monetary Policy & Investment Implications - Governments are issuing new debt to cover old interest, with central banks absorbing it through quantitative easing (QE) [7] - A substantial amount of interest needs to be monetized, exceeding GDP capacity [8] - Bitcoin thrives in a world of perpetual currency debasement [9]