Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Jack Lew: A shock could come & we're not poised to handle it

Economic Outlook & Uncertainty - The economic outlook for 2026 is uncertain due to confusing economic indicators [1][2] - Policy driving inflation and a large, growing deficit contribute to economic uncertainty [3] - The economy is not well-poised to handle a shock [3] Tariffs & Inflation - Tariffs are considered inflationary [4] - Wholesalers initially absorbed tariff costs, but these are now starting to impact prices, including food [5] - Economic analysis suggests tariffs ultimately translate to higher prices [6] - Tariff revenue is offsetting the deficit increase from the budget bill, but this may not continue if tariffs are challenged [8] Trade Deficit & Tariff Effectiveness - Tariffs have not rescued the deficit [9] - The trade deficit is wider year-to-date [10] - The primary benefit of tariffs has been creating a negotiating environment, though this is not considered a sustainable approach [11] - Higher prices and a weaker global economy are negative consequences of tariffs [12] Impact on American Households - Americans are worried about the cost of healthcare, housing, and food, which consume most of their paycheck [13] - Potential loss of healthcare support could lead to significant cost increases or lack of coverage for millions [14] - An eighth of the country faces extreme insecurity when nutrition benefits (SNAP) are threatened [16] - The economy is lopsided, with those living paycheck to paycheck struggling [17]