Michael McFaul: The Russian plan is a non-starter, there's no way Zelenskyy could sign that

US-Ukraine Relations & Peace Plan - The report discusses a US-Ukraine peace plan, initially perceived as favorable to Russia, demanding significant concessions from Ukraine [2][4][5] - A senator indicated the peace plan was a "wishlist of the Russians," but Marco Rubio later claimed the US authored the proposal [2] - The plan included demands such as Ukraine ceding territory, remaining outside of NATO, and limiting its army size [6] - The report highlights conflicting views within the US government regarding the approach to the conflict, with some advocating for engagement with Russia and others for increased pressure [15][16] Key Players & Perspectives - President Trump criticized President Zelensky, stating Ukrainian leaders have shown "zero gratitude" for US support [2] - Michael McFall, former US ambassador to Russia, characterized the initial peace plan as "Putin's dream" [5] - The report mentions Secretary of State Rubio's involvement in negotiations, seen as a positive sign due to the Ukrainian side being represented by someone close to President Zelensky [7] - The discussion involves figures like Marjorie Taylor Green, Zoran Mdani, and Steve Witkov, reflecting diverse political angles [1][7] Potential Outcomes & Risks - The report suggests that any deal perceived as a capitulation by Ukraine could lead to a coup d'etat against President Zelensky [8] - There's concern that even if a compromise is reached, Putin may reject it, indicating his continued desire to fight [9] - The report questions whether Trump would defend Ukraine after a deal, given his perceived pro-Russian stance [24][25] - The negotiators understand limiting the number of troops Ukraine can have is a non-starter [28] Russia's Position & Strength - The report argues that while Ukraine faces challenges, Russia is also weak, facing economic issues and population decline [18][19] - Russia's economy is impacted by oil prices around $60 per barrel [18] - The report emphasizes that Russia's economy is "absolutely devastated" [23] - The report suggests Russia may cut a deal favorable in the short run but intends to continue fighting [27]