Investment Thesis - Alphabet is predicted to outperform other Magnificent 7 stocks in the next year due to its ability to compete in generative AI and its distribution advantage [1] - Gemini's capabilities demonstrate Alphabet's renewed competitive culture in the large language model space, encouraging investors [3] AI Competition and Search - Alphabet has addressed concerns about its ability to compete in generative AI, demonstrated by accelerating search growth [1][2] - The company exceeded street growth expectations by 300 basis points (3%) in the September quarter, indicating renewed interest in search revenue [2] - Google's distribution is habitual, with 25 亿 (2.5 billion) people using Google search daily, compared to an estimated 5 亿 (500 million) daily ChatGPT users [7] Valuation and Multiple - Alphabet is trading at 28 times its next 12-month earnings, in line with the "Magnificent Six" excluding Tesla's higher multiple of 170 [5] - While Alphabet's forward multiple of 30 is above its historical average of 23 over the past 5 years, it is not considered egregious, with potential for earnings upside [8] Chatbot Distribution and Monetization - Only 20% of Google users currently use a chatbot daily, representing a significant growth opportunity [4] - Google can potentially build a large $20 per month business by steering traffic into a pure Gemini mode, similar to OpenAI's consumer business which accounts for 80% of their revenue [9]
Alphabet is the best 'mag 7' stock to own for the next year, says Deepwater's Gene Munster