Nagel: This will be a very interesting holiday season with clear winners and losers

Holiday Shopping Season Overview - The holiday shopping season is expected to be interesting with both winners and losers due to a selective and precarious spending backdrop [2][3] - Lower-income consumers are under pressure, which may weigh on retailers that are not well-positioned [3][4] - Retailers with products that consumers want will likely win during the holiday season [7] - Lack of product cycle and newness will cause retailers to suffer [8] Retailer Positioning - Best Buy and Dick's Sporting Goods are well-positioned with products that consumers want [2][5] - Best Buy is seeing the beginning of a new product cycle with AI-driven products [5] - Dick's Sporting Goods is doing a great job with their brands, particularly Nike [6] - Home furnishing space may see softer trends due to lack of innovation, weaker housing backdrop, and reliance on financing [6][7] Discounting and Pricing Strategies - Retailers have become smarter in how they discount around the holiday season, especially Black Friday [10] - More promotional stance by retailers and brands is expected this year to encourage cautious consumers to spend [11] - Retailers have been raising prices to account for tariffs, which now gives them more ammunition to promote [12] - Promotional activity is essentially a synonym for discounting [11][12] Top Picks and Expectations - Oppenheimer's senior equity research analyst favors Dick's Sporting Goods within his coverage universe [2][14] - Nike is a derivative call on Dick's Sporting Goods [6][15] - Bank of America data showed holiday shopping up about 45% over last year [1]