NRF's Matt Shay: We're seeing consumers behave positively ahead of the holiday shopping season

Holiday Spending Forecast - National Retail Federation (NRF) forecasts a 4% gain in retail sales for November and December, exceeding $1 trillion for the first time [1] - The forecast of 37% to 42% growth translates to $1 trillion in sales [8][11] - Consumer spending on gifts, food, decorations, and other seasonal goods is expected to be $890, slightly down from $902 last year [7] Consumer Behavior & Confidence - Consumers demonstrate engagement in commerce despite low economic confidence [3][4] - Consumers are prioritizing holiday spending by seeking value, convenience, reducing savings, and taking on more debt [5] - Consumers tend to spend more during big shopping weekends than initially indicated in surveys [10] Economic Factors & Retailer Sentiment - Goods inflation is almost flat, and food inflation is around 1%, with some category exceptions [6] - Retailers have generally reported positive earnings despite economic uncertainty, tariffs, and government shutdown [14] - Consumers and retailers are showing resilience in the face of adversity, uncertainty, and volatility [14][15] - Wages are slightly ahead of inflation, contributing to real spending and purchasing power [15]