Barclays analyst on whether the Russia-Ukraine peace deal will impact oil prices

Oil Market Dynamics - Geopolitical headlines have caused volatility in oil markets, but the fundamental view remains unchanged [2][3] - Russia's crude oil production has been flat to slightly down this year, despite increased OPEC+ targets, indicating near-capacity production [3][4] - A ceasefire and sanctions relief may not necessarily lead to increased Russian oil production [4] Price Outlook - Barclays maintains a Brent crude oil outlook of $66 per barrel for next year on average [4] - The forward curve for crude oil is sitting at $62 per barrel, with Barclays' forecast only $4 ahead [11] Demand Side - China's oil demand is up 400,000 barrels per day for the first 10 months of this year [7] - This exceeds the forecast of 280,000 barrels per day for the full year, driven by strong industrial activity despite EV adoption [7][8] Refining Margins - Attacks on Russian refinery infrastructure have boosted refining margins significantly [6] - A ceasefire could potentially lower refining margins due to a pause in these attacks [6] - Limited spare refining capacity outside of China contributes to higher refined product cracks [12] Consumer Impact - A 17% (17 per 1,000) surplus per day is factored into the price for next year [10] - A ceasefire could potentially provide some respite for end consumers in the US [12]