Fed and AI trade are now inextricably linked, says Gabelli Funds' John Belton

Market Trends & Investment Strategies - Gabelli Funds portfolio manager suggests a potential 7% increase from the current market level, aligning with the long-term average [1] - The market's performance is significantly influenced by big tech companies, which are currently subject to considerable debate [2] - The market's earlier excitement about rate cuts against a backdrop of economic growth reacceleration has somewhat reversed due to less dovish signals from the Federal Reserve and cooling data [4] - Broadening out trade has been observed in the last few weeks, but ultimately, fundamentals and earnings growth will drive stocks [11] Economic Factors & Fiscal Policy - Tax refunds are expected to boost consumer spending [7] - Expensing of capital expenditures (capex) is anticipated to stimulate non-AI capex, potentially leading to a reacceleration [7][8] - There's a concern that companies may not be fully aware of or utilizing the bonus depreciation benefits in the tax bill [8][9][10] AI & Technology Sector - Data center infrastructure is crucial to the economy [2] - The impact on AI stocks was more influenced by market fatigue and risk-off sentiment than by fundamental factors [5] - Strong fundamentals are primarily observed within big tech companies, particularly the "Magnificent Seven" [12] - Five of the "Magnificent Seven" have seen their forward price earnings multiples derate this year, with performance driven by earnings growth rather than multiple expansion [12]