Unclear existing proposal will bring peace between Ukraine-Russia, says RBC's Helima Croft

Geopolitical Risks & Oil Supply - RBC Capital Markets notes damage to a single mooring point at the CPC pipeline, impacting loading capacity [1][2] - Ukrainian drone attacks on three Russian tankers and the CPC pipeline raise concerns about a new phase in the conflict and potential escalation [2] - The attacks could potentially influence peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, either by prompting Russia to make concessions or by escalating the conflict [3][4] - Ukraine's independent drone capabilities eliminate reliance on US technology for these attacks [4][5] - The market initially anticipated a rally due to US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, but peace proposal announcements tempered expectations [5][6] - Escalation of attacks on Black Sea tankers and the CPC pipeline could elevate the risk profile for the entire Black Sea commodity corridor, affecting oil and grain shipments [9] Market Dynamics & Production - Despite oil prices being below $60 per barrel, US oil production remains high at 1384 million barrels per day [3][9] - The market is considering the potential impact of Venezuela and Nicholas Maduro on the oil market [10][11] - The US is considering options regarding Nicholas Maduro, including potential removal from power [11][12] Peace Talks & Geopolitical Tensions - Skepticism exists in Europe regarding Russia's willingness to make meaningful concessions in peace talks, particularly concerning Ukraine's potential path into NATO [6] - Germany is reportedly preparing for potential conflict with Russia by 2030, highlighting ongoing geopolitical tensions [7] - The potential for President Trump to broker a peace agreement is being considered, but the involvement of multiple stakeholders, including Ukraine, complicates the situation [8]