What Tennessee's closer-than-expected special election could show ahead of the midterms

Elections Analysis - Cook Political Report expects a fairly comfortable Republican win in the discussed race [1] - Democratic overperformance in special elections this year has been about 18 percentage points, while the district is Trump plus 22 [2] - A Republican victory between 4.5 and 6 percentage points is expected [6] Redistricting Strategies and Concerns - Republicans obliterated the Nashville district in 2021, spreading Democrats into four different districts [4] - Indiana Republicans are proposing to divide the Indianapolis district into four directions [4] - Republicans are nervous about their election prospects in 2026, leading to redistricting efforts [13] - Redistricting could backfire on Republicans, potentially leading to more seat losses [15] - Florida Republicans are considering drastic redistricting, potentially eliminating most South Florida Democratic delegation [10] Republican Party Dynamics - Some Republicans are pushing back on redistricting, despite pressure from the president [16] - Redistricting is not popular, even among Republicans, indicating waning influence of Trump on this issue [24] - Republicans initially aimed to double or triple their House cushion through redistricting [26] Democratic Party Strategies - Democrats are relying on black voters in North Nashville [3] - Democrats could potentially gain seats in Virginia through redistricting [28]